Poland

EU East Budgets Erode as Thirst for Growth Propels Spending

Following almost a decade of tightening budgets in the wake of the global economic crisis, governments from Warsaw to Bucharest are raising spending and cutting taxes as they seek to offset flagging foreign demand by ramping up consumption. The threat of widening deficits has sparked warnings from international partners and driven up bond yields across [...]

By |June 22nd, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , , , |

The EU’s warning to Poland over the rule of law comes with risks

The commission may find itself in a zero-sum game if it tries to enforce the tough line it’s taking with the ruling Law and Justice party

Source:  The Guardian, 2016/06/01

By |June 7th, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , , |

Political risks come to the fore in central and eastern Europe

Concerns are rising across the 10 countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007

Source:  FT, 2016/05/12

By |May 17th, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , , , |

Shale gas in Poland: not the same story as in the U.S.

Within Europe, Poland is known to be one of the most pro-American countries. 74% of Polish people have a favorable view of the U.S. (Pew Research Center, 2015). This has may be one of the factors that have led Poland to try to replicate on its territory the U.S. shale boom. Indeed the country has [...]

Protecting Climate and Supporting Growth: A Challenge for Poland

The World Bank has supported the Polish government efforts on capacity building in public institutions in the areas of climate policy research and analytical quality. The recent drafting of the National Program for the Development of a Low Carbon Economy, which scrutinizes and analyses all emission reduction instruments, provided an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness [...]

By |March 8th, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , , |

JPMorgan Recommends Selling Zloty as Political Risks Mount

JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommended selling the zloty on speculation a plan to convert foreign-currency mortgages will further increase risks, following Poland’s first-ever sovereign downgrade. The largest U.S. bank by assets moved to an underweight recommendation on the zloty in its emerging-market portfolio, in line with its view on sovereign credit, according to JPMorgan analysts [...]

By |January 27th, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , |

Poland Feels Sting From Downgrade as Long-Term Debt Costs Soar

It just got a whole lot more expensive for Poland to live up to a goal of selling more longer-dated bonds after the shock credit-rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s. The yield on the eastern European nation’s 10-year bonds rose 22 basis points on Monday, the most since September 2014, after S&P knocked the country [...]

By |January 19th, 2016|Categories: News|Tags: , , |

Standard & Poor’s and Poland: a stab in the back?

According to Reuters, “Standard and Poor's (S&P) unexpectedly cut Poland's credit rating a notch on Friday, saying the new government has weakened the independence of key institutions and the rating could fall further” (from A- with positive outlook to BBB+ with a negative outlook). Consequently, many observers are waiting for a massive bond sell-off this [...]

By |January 18th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |

Why Poland still clings to coal

As EU member countries begin jockeying for position in the debate about the shape of the energy union, Poland is defiantly insisting that it must be allowed to keep coal as the central fuel in its energy mix. “Polish energy security is based on coal, and that is our priority,” Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz told [...]

By |October 21st, 2015|Categories: News|Tags: , , , , |

Green swans: don’t forget magnitude to assess sovereign risks!

In his famous book “Fooled by Randomness”, Nassim Taleb tells he was once asked his view on the stock market during a meeting. While in his view the market had a 70% probability to go up but, he supported a strong short position on SP500 futures, betting the market would go down. This might sound [...]