ECB Economic Bulletin: From economic to political concerns!

On Wednesday June 21st, the European Central Bank (ECB) released its regular Economic Bulletin in which the Frankfurt-based central bank said fresh concerns have arisen as old ones fade. Indeed, risks to global growth appeared to have diminished, notably with financial markets that are so far accommodating to the Federal Reserves (Fed) tightening without problems. [...]

By |June 22nd, 2017|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , , |

Key political calendar events in 2017

As illustrated in a recent Blackrock report, the political calendar will be much focused on Europe in 2017, with key elections in France and Germany and key deadlines in the Brexit process.

Key political calendar events in 2017

Source: Blackrock. Investment directions. January 2017.

By |January 26th, 2017|Categories: Graph Analysis, Map|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

Theresa May: You’re the one that I want…

Here we are now, entertain us! Today, Theresa May becomes the new United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister, succeeding to David Cameron who will present his resignation letter to Her Majesty the Queen Elizabeth II in the coming hours. Taking over will be quite a challenge for the one that is presented as the new “Iron [...]

By |July 13th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , |

On the Australian outlook downgrade by Standard & Poor’s

In the beginning of the year, we issued a statement going as follow: “A key challenge for Australia today relates to the resilience of its economic model in a context of low energy and resource prices. Australia has faced a notable deterioration of its economic profile in the recent period, in part due to this [...]

By |July 12th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Even outside the EU, the UK is compelling the ECB to act!

On Thursday July 7th, the French government issued nearly EUR 10 billion of debt with a maturity of 10 years. The yield of this auction reached an all-time low at 0.16%. On the secondary market, the 10-year yield fall even more to 0.14% (see chart below) and the 20-year is trading at about 0.73%. The [...]

By |July 8th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

From Brexit to “currency war”, there is only one step!

Since the United Kingdom (UK) voted for its exit from the European Union (EU), the British pound (GBP) collapsed and reached a more-than-30-year low. Despite a slight rebound at the end of June, the GBP kept depreciating vis-à-vis the United States dollar (USD), but not only… Indeed, the euro (EUR) depreciated, the yen (JPY) appreciated [...]

By |July 6th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

Brexit and climate change: reshuffling the cards?

The “Leave” victory in the United Kingdom is definitely one of the major earthquakes of 2016. It bears tremendous consequences both domestically, in international relationships and abroad. We already tried to present in these columns along the past few days the impact that the expected flight-to-safety (or quality) could or would have on Italy or [...]

By |July 5th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , |

European Union: United we stand, divided we fall…

On Thursday June 30th, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) decided to downgrade its long-term credit rating on the European Union (EU) to AA from AA+ although the outlook was and remains stable. As a reminder, on Monday June 27th, the United Kingdom (UK) saw its long-term credit rating cut by S&P to AA from AAA with [...]

By |July 1st, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , |

What does Brexit tell us about credit rating?

Brexit was in every mouth last week and it is still going to hit the headlines for a couple of months, to say the least. The fact that the pro-Leave Conservatives now turn out to be completely unprepared following their victory should actually be the driver of a very interesting news flow in the coming [...]

By |June 30th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Here come the Three Amigos

If in Europe, the temptation is great to focus on the Brexit and its consequences, life goes on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Barack Obama, Justin Trudeau and Enrique Peña are about to meet at the “Three Amigos” of 2016 in Ottawa, a summit gathering the American, Canadian and Mexican heads of state [...]

By |June 28th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , |