Guillaume Emin

About Guillaume Emin

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So far Guillaume Emin has created 13 blog entries.

What if there was an EU carbon border tax?

What if there was an EU carbon border tax?

“We should have a European carbon tax on carbon, it is crucial.” French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal made during his Sorbonne speech on Europe last week was unexpected, and not without consequences for sovereign investment risks and opportunities.

By |October 6th, 2017|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , |

US/North Korea: testing China with the oil weapon threat

Last week, on 3 September 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test. This is not just an additional test. It contributes to significantly increase tensions between North Korea and Western powers, in particular with the USA. As much has been written on the subject we propose three key takeaways:

Firstly, the latest test confirms [...]

By |September 7th, 2017|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , |

Waiting for the next oil price rise

The coming OPEC meeting that will take place on the 30th November continues to draw much attention from analysts. At the end of September, the OPEC had agreed to cut oil output to a range between 32.5 and 33.0 million barrels per day. Crude prices had immediately increased by 6%. However, the actual outcome of [...]

By |November 17th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , , |

India moving on all fronts

India’s government estimates that the country should invest about USD 1,000 billion by 2030. We see this as a key opportunity to support its economic development (energy being a key production factor), although this implies major shifts in the country’s energy landscape that will not be easy to bring. Fortunately India has several cards to [...]

By |May 19th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |

Shale gas in Poland: not the same story as in the U.S.

Within Europe, Poland is known to be one of the most pro-American countries. 74% of Polish people have a favorable view of the U.S. (Pew Research Center, 2015). This has may be one of the factors that have led Poland to try to replicate on its territory the U.S. shale boom. Indeed the country has [...]

Argentina: every default can have a comeback

One year ago, Argentina ranked as the second country most exposed to “misery” in Bloomberg’s 2015 “misery index”, due to high inflation and unemployment issues. Today, economic challenges remain serious (12.5% GDP reduction between 2013 and 2014, IMF inflation forecast around 25% for the end of 2016, Brazil’s recession…), but Argentina is back on the [...]

By |April 22nd, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |

What do you want to buy Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently gave an interview to Bloomberg in which it described the country’s ambitious plans to develop its Public Investment Fund (PIF) into the largest sovereign wealth fund globally.
Gulf States’ sovereign wealth funds (SWF) are regularly drawing attention from the public, the media, and economic players. Sometimes this is [...]

Iran’s return: not just short-term impacts

Much has been written on Iran’s return to the global oil market. Indeed, the issues at stake are significant not only at the regional level but also at the global level. Two possible radical directions appear to be possible. On the one hand, Iran has the potential to boost global oil supply in a context [...]

No escape to the oil shock for Malaysia

The oil price has now shown it could drop below the 30 USD/bbl. threshold, both for Brent and WTI. And the question remains open on whether it will drop further, especially as significant Iranian oil stocks could come quickly on the market.

By |January 20th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |

The Chinese dilemma between pollution and coal jobs

Sometimes we need a change of air. In China it has actually become a vital question, as no less than 1.6 million people die every year because of air pollution, mainly due to the country’s high dependency on coal use. At the same time China has to face an economic slowdown, and social unrests risks [...]

By |January 8th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |