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Fighting against climate change is this century’s battle. It involves not only our future, but also the future of our children, and Gael Giraud, Chief economist of the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) knows it. On Thursday, he was once again invited on national radio to explain his views and used a very sensible metaphor.
- Imagine a plane that has a 10% chance to crash… would you board it? Then now, just figure out that we are all inside this plane that is called planet earth and I don’t think it is an overstatement to say that the survival of humanity is at stake.
While COP22 will take place in Morocco in less than two months, with a little less of media attention than the Paris summit (to say the least), the economist went back on last year’s conclusions. Indeed, the Paris agreement is a huge diplomatic success as it was the first time the international community managed to commit so voluntarily in order to tackle climate change. However, Mr. Giraud insists on the fact that this commitment is, from a climate perspective, far from being enough. His point relies on the idea that if every participant takes the actions it said it would, then the base case scenario would be a 3.5 °C-increase of the world temperature by the end of the century. And this is does not take into account the tail distribution that would lead to a 6°C-increase of the world temperature, that the economist assesses as 10% (here is the 10% chance of the “earth” plane crash). So we are still pretty far from the 2°C temperature hike that is being targeted.
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IMF issues warning to Portugal after austerity policy rollbacks – Public Finance International – 23/09/2016
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Source: Public Finance International, 2016/09/23